AI Trajectory Observatory

A transparent tracker of measured AI capabilities and gaps. Analysis of ultimate possibilities and constraints will be added in a later phase.

Current Status Snapshot

ECI Frontier

167

As of Oct 10, 2026 · Source: Epoch AI

METR 50% Time Horizon

~17 hrs

As of Sep 8, 2026 · Source: METR (TH 1.1)

Last Material Update

Oct 10

As of 2026 · Source: Update Log

ECI Over Time

Approximate frontier trend based on public Epoch AI data (Claude 3.5 Sonnet ≈130, Opus 5.5 =167). Not a full time series.

As of Oct 2026 · Epoch AI. Absolute scores are arbitrary; focus on trends.

METR Time Horizon

50% horizon (hrs)80% horizon (hrs)

Approximate frontier based on public METR TH 1.1 (Opus 4.6 ~12h, Mythos early ~17h at 50%). Above ~16h unreliable. Not a full series.

As of May 2026 · METR. Measurements above ~16 hours are unreliable with current task suite.

Quantitative metrics with sources and limitations

Observable milestones versus current status